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二季度RMB持续贬值经济下行压力攀升

作者:admin日期:

分类:123/都市资讯/

In the context of the intensified trade friction between China and the United States, the recent RMB exchange rate has once again caused widespread concern in the market. The China Economic Times reporter asked scholars who have long tracked the trend of the RMB exchange rate to see whether the RMB depreciation situation is sustainable and the future RMB exchange rate trend in the short term. And deepening the reform of the exchange rate system and other issues to discuss. The basic consensus is that although the RMB still has some depreciation pressure in the short term, the depreciation situation will not continue.


China Economic Times: On May 20, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached 6.8988, approaching 6.9. The offshore RMB exchange rate in Hong Kong has fallen below 6.9. As the trade situation between China and the United States deteriorates again and the two sides again impose tariffs on each other, the pressure of RMB depreciation will rise immediately. Is there a high possibility that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fall?

Wang Youxin: On the one hand, with the rapid release of the previous devaluation sentiment, it not only conforms to the changes in market sentiment and the adjustment of the international balance of payments, but also gives the real economy more flexibility. On the other hand, when both the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates smashed 6.9, the market depreciation is expected to be strong.

Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, released a stabilizing signal and regulatory intentions on May 19, indicating that the central bank does not want the exchange rate to continue to depreciate rapidly, avoiding spiral downturns and stalls, and bringing greater market sentiment and cross-border capital flows. Shock.

From the past experience, the central bank has accumulated sufficient tools and means to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, and has achieved good results. Exchange rate management mainly includes six tools: middle price management, offshore exchange rate management, monetary policy management, verbal intervention, capital flow management, and foreign exchange intervention. Normally, the two instruments of “median price management + capital flow management” can be used to achieve exchange rate management objectives; in the crisis or special period, on the basis of the middle price management, oral intervention and foreign exchange intervention can be comprehensively used, and capital flow management can be strengthened when necessary. .

E Yongjian: It is expected that the renminbi will still have some depreciation pressure in the short term, but the depreciation situation will not continue. This is mainly because the pressure of RMB depreciation in this round mainly comes from the decline of China’s exports and the slowdown in economic growth due to the increase of tariffs. Pessimistic expectations, even the wrong judgment of China's initiative to use the exchange rate depreciation to deal with tariff increases.

The strong resilience of the Chinese economy has made the Chinese government stabilize the growth by strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments, which will gradually correct the previous false expectations. As the continued sharp depreciation of the renminbi may trigger a large-scale withdrawal of funds and domestic systemic risks, the Chinese government will not use the exchange rate depreciation as a tool to deal with tariff increases.

The RMB exchange rate has shown a "threefold" trend this year.

China Economic Times: Since the beginning of this year, the fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate have changed greatly. What characteristics does it present?

Zhang Ming: The trend of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar from the beginning of 2019 to the present day can be described by twists and turns. From the beginning of 2019 to the end of February, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar climbed from 6.86 to 6.69, an appreciation of 2.5%. From the end of February to mid-April 2019, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar showed a horizontal consolidation trend (the central level was around 6.70). From mid-April to mid-May 2019, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated from 6.70 to 6.79, depreciating by about 1.5%. It is worth noting that from the beginning of 2019, the RMB's CFETS currency basket index has continued to climb, rising from 93.3 to 95.6, an appreciation of about 2.5%.

Starting from the beginning of 2016, the pricing mechanism of the RMB against the US dollar middle price adopts the two-factor pricing model of “closing price + basket exchange rate”. Judging from the implementation effect of the pricing model, the movement of the RMB-to-US dollar bilateral exchange rate and the movement of the RMB against the CFETS basket exchange rate index are significantly positively correlated. When the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar continues to appreciate, the renminbi will continue to appreciate against the CFETS basket exchange rate index, and vice versa. A typical example is that from mid-October 2018 to mid-April 2019, both the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the RMB against the CFETS basket index showed a significant sustained appreciation.

However, since mid-April 2019, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has turned downward, while the RMB has continued to rise against the CFETS basket index, which has formed a certain degree of deviation.

Overall, from the beginning of 2019 to the present, the exchange rate between the RMB against the US dollar and the RMB against the basket has shown an appreciation trend. One of the important reasons for this phenomenon is that the US dollar index has remained strong since the beginning of 2019. This is because when the US dollar remains strong against other major international currencies, if the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rises, this means that the RMB will face a greater appreciation of the exchange rate of other major international currencies. Although the RMB-dollar exchange rate and the US dollar index have shown a significant negative movement relationship since the beginning of 2016, from the beginning of 2019, the US dollar index and the RMB-dollar exchange rate have shown a simultaneous upward trend.

The probability of the RMB against the US dollar “breaking 7” is still low

China Economic Times: From May 10th, the United States began to impose tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese exports to the United States. How can the trend of the RMB exchange rate be predicted in the case of increased external uncertainty?

Wang Youxin: The exchange rate forecast is full of challenges. Not only ordinary investors, but even the central bank’s former governor Zhou Xiaochuan once said that the foreign exchange market is a very sensitive market and no one can accurately predict it.

Although exchange rate forecasting is more difficult in the context of globalization and financial market opening, the exchange rate as an organic part of the economic system is not a random walk, but a traceable, but not a simple linear trend, but a dynamic nonlinearity. Variety. We can use traditional theories to find the exchange rate center, use the domestic and international economic trends and the balance of payments situation to predict the long-term equilibrium exchange rate, and then predict the short-term exchange rate fluctuations based on the results of major domestic and foreign central bank meetings, major currency exchange rate movements and news events. Finally, observe the deviation between the real exchange rate and the predicted value, and continuously correct the exchange rate forecast value through market trial and error. The use of the framework requires continuous market tracking and indicator observation of the domestic and international economic and financial markets, and it is by no means a simple “being a brain”.

At present, there are factors that support the stability of the RMB exchange rate, as well as factors that are unfavorable to the exchange rate, and exchange rate fluctuations will increase significantly. On the one hand, the Fed’s rate hike is slowing down, and the signs of the US economy are gradually showing signs of “blocking” for the US dollar. On the other hand, the Chinese economy is gradually stabilizing and the central bank’s stability measures will be “the bottom” of the renminbi. It is consistent. As the cross-border capital flow situation improves and external input risks are alleviated, the RMB exchange rate will gradually stabilize and rebound. However, even if there is a short-term rapid decline in the exchange rate in the future, or abnormal fluctuations in cross-border capital flows, the central bank has a wealth of experience and sufficient tools to deal with extreme situations. Therefore, we should firmly believe in the long-term stable growth of the Chinese economy, correctly and rationally treat exchange rate fluctuations, and adopt reasonable measures to avoid exchange rate risks.

E Yongjian: In the face of depreciation pressure, the People's Bank of China has a wealth of tools and means to regulate the RMB exchange rate. The US$3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves is also conducive to stabilizing confidence in the foreign exchange market. In the short term, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is relatively controllable, and there will be no rapid and large depreciation. The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable in the medium and long term. Zhang Ming: In the three quarters after 2019, the US dollar index will continue to be bilaterally volatile, and the volatility center may be at 96-97. It is based on the following reasons.

First, the economic growth rate of the world's major economies will all show a downward trend in 2019, and the US economic growth momentum is relatively good in these economies. After all, the US economic growth rate in 2019 is likely to remain above 2%, which is still higher than the potential growth rate of the US economy. Second, the current US overnight interest rate (Federal Fund rate) and 10-year government bond yields are around 2.5%, but the US unemployment rate is at a low level, the core inflation rate is still around 2%, and the economic growth rate is still higher in the short term. The potential growth rate means that there is a possibility of a rebound in the long-term US Treasury yield in the short term.

Third, domestic political uncertainty in developed countries, including the US's approaching new electoral season, the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, and the uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations will strengthen the risk aversion of global investors, while risk aversion The rise will push up the dollar. In the three quarters after 2019, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar may be slightly depreciated and stabilized. The general fluctuation range is 6.6-7.0, which is the main reason for the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar in the short term.

First, the possibility of a long-term narrow spread between China and the United States has once again narrowed. As China's economic growth rate declines in the second quarter of 2019, and domestic investors' risk aversion increases, China's 10-year government bond yields may drop significantly, and US 10-year bond yields may rebound. Sino-US spreads are expected to contract significantly, and this will weigh on the exchange rate of the yuan against the US dollar.

Second, the renewed trade friction between China and the United States will suppress the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar. Logically, the adverse impact of trade friction on surplus countries in the short term is greater than the adverse impact on deficit countries, which means that the negative impact of the RMB in the short term is greater than the US dollar. Even if the renminbi will be under pressure in the short term, we still believe that the probability of the renminbi against the US dollar “breaking 7” in 2019 is still low. First, with the macro-stability policy from the beginning of the year gradually playing a role, China's economic growth is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2019, while the US economic growth will continue to decline, and the relative changes in economic fundamentals will help stabilize the RMB exchange rate.

Second, under the situation of increased trade friction between China and the United States, the extent of China's current account deterioration may not be as good as the improvement of Sino-US trade friction in the short term. The reason is that if the Sino-US trade friction reaches an agreement, China will significantly increase imports from the United States, which will inevitably lead to a significant contraction in China's overall currency trade surplus. In the context of increased trade friction between China and the United States, although China’s exports to the United States may decline, China’s imports of goods from the United States will not increase significantly. In addition, China’s trade deficit with the United States may also narrow.

Moreover, the “breaking of the RMB exchange rate” may have a significant adverse impact on the confidence of market players, which may lead to greater fluctuations in the domestic asset market. With this in mind, once the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar faces greater depreciation pressure, it is expected that the People's Bank of China will achieve basic stability of the exchange rate in the short term by maintaining strict capital outflow control and increasing counter-cyclical factors. Deepening exchange rate reform should deal with good relations. China Economic Times: In the current domestic and international environment, what should be dealt with in deepening exchange rate reform?

E Yongjian: The trade friction between China and the United States may be further upgraded; the domestic economic transformation and structural adjustment will be further promoted, and the potential financial risks in some areas will not be underestimated. Further deepening the reform of the exchange rate mechanism will face more complicated domestic and international economic and financial situations. In view of the market mechanism of exchange rate, including market mechanism, supply and demand relationship, regulatory system and other major related open measures, it is recommended that the next step of reform should be coordinated, steadily and prudently promoted, and focus on the following aspects.

The first is to deal with the relationship between exchange rate marketization and policy intervention. At present, the middle price formation mechanism of “closing price + a basket of currency exchange rate + counter-cyclical adjustment factor” is in line with the current actual situation, which is conducive to maintaining exchange rate stability and restraining market irrational behavior. In the long run, the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism should also unswervingly adhere to the direction of marketization and continuously enhance the leading role of market forces in the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate. Policy interventions should mainly refrain from irrational and irregular behaviors such as chasing up and down, speculative arbitrage, etc. in a certain period of time, in order to actively guide the market and prevent the exchange rate from deviating significantly from the economic fundamentals for a long period of time. At present, the normalized market intervention has basically withdrawn, and the degree of marketization of exchange rates has been greatly improved. Considering that the influencing factors of the foreign exchange market are complex and unpredictable, the future should not exclude all forms of policy intervention. Policy interventions should strive to harness market forces and organically combine the positive factors of the market to promote the RMB exchange rate to remain basically stable in two-way fluctuations and elastic growth. In particular, price and more indirect tools and means should be used to effectively influence exchange rate changes by adjusting costs, supply and demand and expectations.

The second is to deal with the relationship between the choice of camera and the expected guidance. The previous reform strategy was based on "camera choices". When conditions were right, they would be accelerated. If the timing was not good, they would be postponed. The benefit of this strategy is that it is flexible and flexible, and you can choose a better time window depending on the external environment. The shortcoming is that timely communication with the market is not enough, it is difficult to effectively guide and manage market expectations, and often the market may also have misunderstandings. Future reforms can be considered in combination with camera choices and expected guidance. It is recommended to inform the market direction, basic framework, implementation path and general steps of the market reform in advance, and have an “expected guidance” on the reform of the exchange rate mechanism in advance, so that the market has clearer expectations, and then select the appropriate implementation time window based on internal and external conditions. . This can provide reasonable expectations to the market, reduce unnecessary friction and costs that may arise in the implementation, and avoid misjudgments in the market as much as possible.

The third is to deal with the relationship between exchange rate marketization reform and the development of the foreign exchange market. It is not enough to relax the volatility limit and gradually expand the flexibility of the exchange rate marketization reform. We must continue to develop and improve the multi-level foreign exchange market, expand the trading entities in the foreign exchange market to enhance market power, and improve the market infrastructure construction with sound functions and rich products. The foreign exchange market system provides a good micro foundation for the reform of exchange rate marketization. It is recommended to accelerate the development of foreign exchange derivatives markets such as foreign exchange futures and foreign exchange options. This will help the individual and the company to avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations while expanding the volatility of the RMB exchange rate. It will also help to improve the RMB exchange rate pricing mechanism. It is suggested that under the condition of mature conditions, the channels for individuals and enterprises to participate in the foreign exchange market will be gradually expanded, and the current market structure of the foreign exchange market, which is dominated by institutional investors, will be changed.

The fourth is to handle the relationship between cross-border capital flow management and development of foreign investment. In order to avoid large-scale capital outflows and reduce the pressure of RMB depreciation, strict management of capital outflows is necessary. At the same time, we should also clearly see that after years of accumulation of technology and capital, Chinese enterprises have strong global resource allocation requirements, and China's foreign direct investment has entered a period of rapid development. Especially the construction of innovative countries is inseparable from the introduction, digestion and absorption of advanced technologies, while foreign direct investment is an important way to acquire and learn high technology. Reasonable and standardized foreign direct investment will surely bring a strong impetus to China's economic transformation and development and quality improvement. Strengthen the policy guidance of foreign investment, promote the foreign direct investment of enterprises to dock the national strategy, and focus on key industries and fields that are conducive to industrial upgrading and structural adjustment.
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